Análisis de métodos de estimación de tablas input-output regionalesuna aplicación al caso de la Región de Murcia

Abstract

The Region of Murcia, in Spain, does not have an input-output framework based on surveys. This fact supposes a strategic weakness and this work comes to supply such deficiency, estimating the input - output tables of the Region of Murcia corresponding to the year 2015. In this paper, input-output table regionalization techniques are subjected to evaluation, comparing them among themselves, in a novel way, at the regional level and serving to establish suitability criteria, in relation to the regionalization process to follow. Among these methodologies, those based on location quotients stand out. The methodologies that obtain the best performance in terms of precision in the estimation coincide in making their value depend on parameters that smooth the correction applied to the national domestic coefficients. These parameters are completely unknown in terms of their optimal value, meaning that which gives rise to the most accurate estimate. This work deals directly with this problem, trying to provide a significant improvement in the use of regionalization methodologies based on location quotients. Based on foreign trade data with the rest of the world and the transport of goods by road, data easily available through official statistical centres, alternatives are presented for the determination of each of the parameters that affect the estimate from the methodologies that submit the rectification to a smoothing through the parameters determined in its theoretical development, verifying its suitability both for the regions of Korea and for the regions of Spain with an available input-output framework. On the other hand, biproportional regionalization techniques are equally recognized. It is for this reason that this work evaluates in a comparative way and in the regional scope the most recognized or used in projection and analyses its capacity to obtain satisfactory results as regionalization techniques. In this estimation process, the proper determination of interregional trade is crucial. For this, it is common to resort to gravity models. However, when a regionalization process is undertaken aimed at obtaining an input-output table of an individual region or even a bi-regional table, there are alternative procedures in the discipline to the gravity models that are subject to evaluation in this work to determine their ability to obtain satisfactory results. The estimation of the final demand also focuses the attention of this work. Combining the methodology of extended location quotients, as well as the official information available on certain items of final demand, an extension of the methodology is proposed to have a regional input-output framework broken down according to the origin and destination of the economic transactions of the territory. Finally, because of the analysis carried out, a hybrid regionalization procedure is proposed in five phases, combining the available official information, methodologies based on location quotients and biproportional techniques, maximizing the precision in the estimation of the input-output tables presenting as a result the input-output table of the Region of Murcia broken down into 51 homogeneous branches of activity, both simple and bi-regional, differentiating at the highest level the origin of funds between domestic, coming from the rest of the country and the rest of the world.