Impactos sectoriales de la paralización de la actividad debido a impactos externos como el COVID-19aproximación basada en la extracción hipotética aplicada a la inserción externa de la economía española

  1. Hugo Campos Romero 1
  2. Óscar Rodil Marzábal 1
  1. 1 Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
    info

    Universidade de Santiago de Compostela

    Santiago de Compostela, España

    ROR https://ror.org/030eybx10

Revista:
Revista de economía mundial

ISSN: 1576-0162

Ano de publicación: 2020

Número: 56

Páxinas: 135-158

Tipo: Artigo

DOI: 10.33776/REM.V0I56.4861 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openArias Montano editor

Outras publicacións en: Revista de economía mundial

Resumo

La pandemia del COVID-19 ha provocado una paralización de la actividad económica sin precedentes en la historia reciente. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el impacto económico y sectorial potencial resultante de la suspensión de determinadas actividades. Los métodos empleados son el análisis de los encadenamientos productivos y el método de extracción hipotética, tomando como referencia las relaciones comerciales de España con la UE, EE. UU. y China en 2015. Los resultados obtenidos en base a cuatro posibles escenarios muestran un descenso del PIB debido a la parálisis de determinados sectores, revelando la existencia de importantes encadenamientos productivos a través de las Cadenas Globales de Valor

Información de financiamento

The authors would like to thank the financial support received from the Agencia Estatal de Investigación of the Spanish Government in the framework of the research project “The European Strategy for Circular Economy: Prospective Juridic Analysis and Changes in the Global Value Chains” (Ref. ECO2017-87142-C2-1-R), from the European Regional Development Fund (ERFD) and the Xunta de Galicia (Ref. ED431C 2018/23). The authors would also like to thank the Consellería de Cultura, Educación e Ordenación Universitaria of the Xunta de Galicia for the support given in the accomplishment of this study through the pre-doctoral grant programme (ED481A-2019/108).

Referencias bibliográficas

  • Albert, J. F., & Tercero-Lucas, D. (2020): Política monetaria en tiempos de pandemia: Evaluación y propuesta de Helicóptero Monetario. Revista de Economía Mundial, 0(56), Article 56. https://doi.org/10.33776/rem. v0i56.4723
  • Baldwin, R., & Venables, A. J. (2015): Trade Policy and Industrialisation when Backward and Forward Linkages Matter. Research in Economics, 69(2), 123-131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2015.02.008
  • Bernhardt, T. (2013): Developing Countries in the Global Apparel Value Chain: A Tale of Upgrading and Downgrading Experiences (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 2237490). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ ssrn.2237490
  • Binder, C. (2020): Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1162/ rest_a_00931
  • Boffa, M. (2018): Trade Linkages Between the Belt and Road Economies. The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8423
  • Boundi Chraki, F. (2017): Análisis insumo-producto multirregional e integración económica del TLCAN. Una aplicación del método de extracción hipotética. Cuadernos de Economía, 40(114), 256-267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. cesjef.2016.10.004
  • Cella, G. (1984): The Input-Output Measurement of Interindustry Linkages*. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 46(1), 73-84. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1984.mp46001005.x
  • Chena, P. I., & Noguera, D. M. (2020): Efectos macroeconómicos de las cadenas globales de valor en la balanza comercial. Revista de Economía Mundial, 0(54): https://doi.org/10.33776/rem.v0i54.3848
  • Clements, B. J. (1990): On the Decomposition and Normalization of Interindustry Linkages. Economics Letters, 33(4), 337-340. https://doi. org/10.1016/0165-1765(90)90084-E
  • De Mesnard, L. (2009): Is the Ghosh Model Interesting?. Journal of Regional Science, 49(2), 361-372. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467- 9787.2008.00593.x
  • Dietzenbacher, E. (2002): Interregional Multipliers: Looking Backward, Looking Forward. Regional Studies, 36(2), 125-136. https://doi. org/10.1080/00343400220121918
  • Dietzenbacher, E., Burken, B. van, & Kondo, Y. (2019): Hypothetical Extractions from a Global Perspective. Economic Systems Research, 31(4), 505-519. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2018.1564135
  • Dietzenbacher, E., Linden, J. A. van der, & Steenge, A. E. (1993): The Regional Extraction Method: EC Input–Output Comparisons. Economic Systems Research, 5(2), 185-206. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535319300000017
  • Feenstra, R. C. (1998): Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy. journal of Economic Perspectives, 12(4), 31-50.
  • Fransen, J., & Knorringa, P. (2018): Learning and Upgrading of Craft Exporters at the Interface of Global Value Chains and Innovation Systems. The European Journal of Development Research. https://doi.org/10.1057/ s41287-018-0167-y
  • Gereffi, Gary. (1994): The Organization of Buyer-Driven Global Commodity Chains: How U.S. Retailers Shape Overseas Production Networks (G. Gereffi & M. Korzeniewicz, Eds.; pp. 95-122). Praeger. http://hdl.handle. net/10161/11457
  • Gereffi, Gary. (1999): International Trade and Industrial Upgrading in the Apparel Commodity Chain (Vol. 48). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022- 1996(98)00075-0
  • Gereffi, Gary. (2005): The Global Economy: Organization, Governance, and Development. The handbook of economic sociology, 2, 160–182.
  • Gereffi, Gary, & Fernandez-Stark, K. (2016): Global Value Chain Analysis: A Primer, 2nd Edition [Report]. Duke CGGC (Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness). https://bit.ly/30GKIXM
  • Gereffi, Gary, Humphrey, J., Kaplinsky, R., & Sturgeon, T. J. (2001): Introduction: Globalisation, Value Chains and Development. IDS Bulletin, 32(3), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1759-5436.2001.mp32003001.x
  • Gereffi, Gary, & Lee, J. (2016): Economic and Social Upgrading in Global Value Chains and Industrial Clusters: Why Governance Matters. Journal of Business Ethics, 133(1), 25-38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-014- 2373-7
  • Gereffi, Gary, & Luo, X. (2014): Risks and Opportunities of Participation in Global Value Chains. The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6847
  • Ghosh, A. (1958): Input-Output Approach in an Allocation System. Economica, 25(97), 58. https://doi.org/10.2307/2550694
  • Godfrey, S. (2015): Global, Regional and Domestic Apparel Value Chains in Southern Africa: Social Upgrading for Some and Downgrading for Others. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 8(3), 491-504.https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsv018
  • Goldenberg, T. (2020, mayo 29): Travel Disruptions Challenge Global Transplant Deliveries. AP NEWS. https://bit.ly/30LWxML
  • Golini, R., De Marchi, V., Boffelli, A., & Kalchschmidt, M. (2018): Which Governance Structures Drive Economic, Environmental, and Social Upgrading? A Quantitative Analysis in the Assembly Industries. International Journal of Production Economics, 203, 13-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. ijpe.2018.05.021
  • Gong, B., Zhang, S., Yuan, L., & Chen, K. Z. (2020): A Balance Act: Minimizing Economic Loss while Controlling Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia. Journal of Chinese Governance, 5(2), 249-268. https://doi.org/10.1080/23812346.2 020.1741940
  • Guerra, A.-I., & Sancho, F. (2011): Revisiting the Original Ghosh Model: Can It Be Made More Plausible? Economic Systems Research, 23(3), 319-328. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2011.566261
  • Humphrey, J., & Schmitz, H. (2001): Governance in Global Value Chains. IDS Bulletin, 32(3), 19-29. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1759-5436.2001. mp32003003.x
  • Kohler, J. (2020, junio 1). Coronavirus-Related Disruptions in the Beef Supply Chain Have Spurred Changes. Will They Last? The Denver Post. https://dpo. st/30BqE9d
  • Lee, K., Szapiro, M., & Mao, Z. (2018): From Global Value Chains (GVC) to Innovation Systems for Local Value Chains and Knowledge Creation. The European Journal of Development Research, 30(3), 424-441.
  • Leontief, W. (1951): The Structure of American Economy, 1919-1939: An Empirical Application of Equilibrium Analysis. Harvard: Harvard University Press
  • López González, J., Meliciani, V., & Savona, M. (2019): When Linder Meets Hirschman: Inter-Industry Linkages and Global Value Chains in Business Services. Industrial and Corporate Change, 28(6), 1555-1586. https://doi. org/10.1093/icc/dtz023
  • McKibbin, W. J., & Fernando, R. (2020): The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3547729). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3547729
  • Nicola, M., Alsafi, Z., Sohrabi, C., Kerwan, A., Al-Jabir, A., Iosifidis, C., Agha, M., & Agha, R. (2020): The Socio-Economic Implications of the CoronavirusPpandemic (COVID-19): A review. International Journal of Surgery, 78, 185-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsu.2020.04.018
  • Pegler, L. (2015): Peasant Inclusion in Global Value Chains: Economic Upgrading but Social Downgrading in Labour Processes? The Journal of Peasant Studies, 42(5), 929-956. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2014.992885
  • Pietrobelli, C., & Rabellotti, R. (2011): Global Value Chains Meet Innovation Systems: Are There Learning Opportunities for Developing Countries? (Vol. 39). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2010.05.013
  • Pietrobelli, C., & Staritz, C. (2018): Upgrading, Interactive Learning, and Innovation Systems in Value Chain Interventions. The European Journal of Development Research, 30(3), 557-574. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287- 017-0112-5
  • Rodil, O. (2017): Las relaciones intersectoriales de América Latina con China en el marco de las cadenas globales de valor, en Enrique Dussel Peters (coord.), América Latina y el Caribe y China. Economía, comercio e inversión, Unión de Universidades de América Latina y el Caribe, Ciudad de México, México, 337-358. ISBN: 978-607-8066-28-5
  • Selva, L. M., & Medina, R. P. (2018): Participación de la Unión Europea en las cadenas globales de valor: Vinculación logística y económica. Revista de Economía Mundial, 0(51). https://doi.org/10.33776/rem.v0i51.3910
  • Strassert, G. (1968): Zur Bestimmung strategischer Sektoren mit Hilfe von Input-Output-Modellen. Jahrbücher Für Nationalökonomie Und Statistik, 182(1), 211-215. https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-1968-0114
  • Tian, K., Dietzenbacher, E., & Jong-A-Pin, R. (2019): Measuring Industrial Upgrading: Applying Factor Analysis in a Global Value Chain Framework. Economic Systems Research, 31(4), 642-664. https://doi.org/10.1080/09 535314.2019.1610728
  • Timmer, M. P., Erumban, A. A., Los, B., Stehrer, R., & de Vries, G. J. (2014): Slicing Up Global Value Chains. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 99-118.
  • Zhao, Y., Liu, Y., Wang, S., Zhang, Z., & Li, J. (2016): Inter-Regional Linkage Analysis of Industrial CO2 Emissions in China: An Application of a Hypothetical Extraction Method. Ecological Indicators, 61, 428-437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.09.044