Mergers in financial services and overlending
- David Peón 1
- Manel Antelo 2
-
1
Universidade da Coruña
info
-
2
Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
info
ISSN: 2340-6704, 0210-0266
Year of publication: 2018
Volume: 41
Issue: 116
Pages: 167-180
Type: Article
More publications in: Cuadernos de economía: Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance
Abstract
In this paper we build a model of banking competition that considers a manageri-al-overconfidence setup resulting in two main findings. First, a merger between rational banks may change their behaviour in that, in post-merger conditions, they would follow the over-confident bank when they would not have done so pre-merger, thereby amplifying the credit boom. Second, the results overcome the merger paradox, in the sense that the merger would be profitable for participants and thus intrinsically stable.
Funding information
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support received from the Xunta de Galicia (Spain) through Research Project ED431B2016/001 Consolidación e estruturación – 2016 GPC GI-2016 Análise económica dos mercados e institucións. This research has also received the funding of the Program for the “Consolidation and Structuring of Competitive Research Units - Research Networks (Redes de Investigación)” (Ref. ED341D R2016/014), Proxectos Plan Galego IDT, from the Xunta de Galicia (Spain).Funders
-
Xunta de Galicia
Spain
- ED431B2016/001
-
Xunta de Galicia
Spain
- ED341D R2016/014
Bibliographic References
- Acharya, V., Naqvi, H. (2012). The seeds of a crisis: a theory of bank liquidity and risk taking over the business cycle. Journal of Financial Economics 106(2), 349-366.
- Ahmed, A.S., Duellman, S. (2013). Managerial overconfidence and accounting conservatism. Journal of Accounting Research 51(1), 1-30.
- Amel, D., Barnes, C., Panetta, F., Salleo, C. (2004). Consolidation and efficiency in the financial sector: A review of the international evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance 28, 2493–2519.
- Atallah, G. (2015). Multi-firm mergers with leaders and followers. Seoul Journal of Economics 28(4), 455-485.
- Baik, K.H. (1995). Horizontal mergers of price-setting firms with sunk capacity costs. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 35(3), 245-56.
- Banerjee, S. (2017). Revisiting bank mergers: Does size matter? Economic and Political Weekly 52(8), 41-48.
- Berger, A.N., Demsetz, R.S., Strahan, P.E. (1999). The consolidation of the financial services industry: Causes, consequences, and implications for the future. Journal of Banking & Finance 23, 135-194.
- Boulton, T.J., Campbell, T.C. (2016). Managerial confidence and initial public offerings. Journal of Corporate Finance 37, 375–392.
- Bouwman, C.H.S. (2014). Managerial optimism and earnings smoothing. Journal of Banking & Finance 41, 283–303.
- Boz, E., Mendoza, E.G. (2014). Financial innovation, the discovery of risk, and the U.S. credit crisis. Journal of Monetary Economics 62, 1-22.
- Burakov, D. (2016). Retesting the institutional memory hypothesis: An experimental study. Panoeconomicus 2016 OnLine-First Issue 00, Pages: 3-3. doi:10.2298/ PAN160105003B
- Camerer, C.F., Lovallo, D. (1999). Overconfidence and excess entry: An experimental approach. The American Economic Review 89, 306-318.
- Contractor, F.J., Lahiri, S., Elango, B., Kundu, S.K. (2014). Institutional, cultural and industry related determinants of ownership choices in emerging market FDI acquisitions. International Business Review 23, 931-941.
- Cummins, J.D., Weiss, M.A., Xie, X., Zi, H. (2010). Economies of scope in financial services: A DEA efficiency analysis of the US insurance industry. Journal of Banking & Finance 34, 1525-39.
- Deneckere, R., Davidson, C. (1985). Incentives to form coalitions with Bertrand competition. The RAND Journal of Economics 16(4), 473-86.
- Deshmukh, S., Goel, A.M., Howe, K.M. (2013). CEO Overconfidence and Dividend Policy. Journal of Financial Intermediation 22(3), 440-463.
- Dockner, E.J., Gaunersdorfer, A. (2001). On the profitability of horizontal mergers in industries with dynamic competition. Japan and the World Economy 13, 195-216.
- Ekkayokkaya, M., Holmes, P., Paudyal, C. (2009). The Euro and the changing face of European banking: Evidence from mergers and acquisitions. European Financial Management 15(2), 451-476.
- Fahlenbrach, R., Stulz, R.M. (2011). Bank CEO incentives and the credit crisis. Journal of Financial Economics 99(1), 11-26.
- Faulí-Oller, R. (1997). On merger profitability in a Cournot setting. Economics Letters 54, 75-79.
- Faulí-Oller, R. (2002). Mergers between asymmetric firms: Profitability and welfare. The Manchester School 70(1), 77–87.
- Gelves, J.A. (2010). Horizontal merger with an inefficient leader. The Manchester School 78, 379–394.
- Gelves, J.A. (2014). Differentiation and cost asymmetry: Solving the merger paradox. International Journal of the Economics of Business 21(3), 321-340.
- Gori, F. (2016). Banking integration and monetary policy fragmentation in the Eurozone. International Economics and Economic Policy 5, 1-27.
- Hagendorff, J., Nieto, M.J. (2013). The safety and soundness effects of bank M&A in the EU: Does prudential regulation have any impact? European Financial Management 21(3), 462–490.
- Harrison, T.D. (2011). Do mergers really reduce costs? Evidence from hospitals. Economic Inquiry 49(4), 1054-69.
- Hennessy, D.A. (2000). Cournot oligopoly conditions under which any horizontal merger is profitable. Review of Industrial Organization 17, 277-84.
- Heywood, J.S., McGinty, M. (2007). Convex costs and the merger paradox revisited. Economic Inquiry 45(2), 342349.
- Heywood, J.S., McGinty, M. (2008). Leading and merging: Convex costs, Stackelberg, and the merger paradox. Southern Economic Journal 74(3), 879–893.
- Houston, J.F., James, C.M., Ryngaert, M.D. (2001). Where do merger gains come from? Bank mergers from the perspective of insiders and outsiders. Journal of Financial Economics 60, 285-331.
- Huang-Meier, W., Lambertides, N., Steeley, J.M. (2016). Motives for corporate cash holdings: the CEO optimism effect. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 47, 699-732.
- IMAA (2017). M&A statistics database. Institute for mergers, acquisitions and alliances. https://imaa-institute.org/mergers-and-acquisitions-statistics/ Accessed 01-jun-2017
- IMF (2012). Spain – Financial system stability assessment, Country Report No 12/137, International Monetary Fund. Available at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ ft/scr/2012/cr12137.pdf
- Kahneman, D., Riepe, M. (1998). Aspects of investor psychology. Journal of Portfolio Management 24, 52-65.
- Keys, B.J., Mukherjee, T., Seru, A., Vig, V. (2010). Did securitization lead to lax screening? Evidence from subprime loans, Quarterly Journal of Economics 125(1), 307-362.
- Kwoka, J.E. (1989). The private profitability of horizontal mergers with non-Cournot and Maverick behaviour. International Journal of Industrial Organization 7(3), 403–411.
- Lu, X., Shang, J., Wu, S., Hegde, G.G., Vargas, L., Zhao, D. (2015). Impacts of supplier hubris on inventory decisions and green manufacturing endeavors. European Journal of Operational Research 245, 121–132.
- Malmendier, U., Tate, G. (2005a). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Journal of Finance 60, 2661-2700.
- Malmendier, U., Tate, G. (2005b). Does overconfidence affect corporate investment? CEO overconfidence measures revisited. European Financial Management 11(5), 649-659.
- Malmendier, U., Tate, G. (2008). Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market’s reaction. Journal of Financial Economics 89, 20-43.
- Malmendier, U., Tate, G. (2015). Behavioural CEOs: The role of managerial overconfidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives 29(4), 37–60.
- Mohamed, E.B., Fairchild, R., Bouri, A. (2014). Investment cash flow sensitivity under managerial optimism: New evidence from NYSE panel data firms. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science 19, 11–18.
- Moore, D.A., Healy, P.J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review 115, 502-517.
- Peón, D., Antelo, M., Calvo, A. (2015b). A dynamic behavioural model of the credit boom. Journal of Economic Issues 49, 1077-1099.
- Peón, D., Calvo, A., Antelo, M. (2015a). On informational efficiency of the banking sector: A behavioural model of the credit boom. Studies in Economics and Finance 32, 158-180.
- Perry, M.K., Porter, R.H. (1985). Oligopoly and the incentive for horizontal merger. American Economic Review 75, 219-227.
- Pesendorfer, M. (2003). Horizontal mergers in the paper industry. The RAND Journal of Economics 34(3), 495515.
- Roll, R. (1986). The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers. Journal of Business 59(2): 197-216.
- Rötheli, T.F. (2012a). Oligopolistic banks, bounded rationality, and the credit cycle. Economics Research International, volume 2012, Article ID 961316, 4 pages.
- Rötheli, T.F. (2012b), Boundedly rational banks’ contribution to the credit cycle. Journal of Socio-Economics 41, 730-737.
- Salant, S.W., Switzer, S., Reynolds, R.J. (1983). Losses from horizontal merger: The effects of an exogenous change in industry structure on Cournot-Nash equilibrium. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 98(2), 185-199.
- Shleifer, A. (2000). Inefficient markets: An introduction to behavioral finance. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
- Shleifer, A., Vishny, R.W. (1997). The limits of arbitrage. Journal of Finance 52(1), 33-55.
- Shu, P., Yeh, Y., Chiang, T., Hung, J. (2013). Managerial overconfidence and share repurchases. International Review of Finance 13(1), 39-65.
- UNCTAD (2013a). Value of Cross-border M&As, by region/ economy of seller, 1990–2012. Geneva: United Nations.
- UNCTAD (2013b). Number of Cross-border M&As, by region/ economy of seller, 1990–2012. Geneva: United Nations.
- Vallascas, F., Hagendorff, J. (2011). The impact of European bank mergers on bidder default risk. Journal of Banking & Finance 35(4), 902–915.
- Ziss, S. (2001). Horizontal mergers and delegation. International Journal of Industrial Organization 19, 471–492.