Rural Decline and Spatial Voting Patterns
- Lago, Ignacio 1
- Lago-Peñas, Santiago 2
-
1
Universitat Pompeu Fabra
info
-
2
Universidade de Vigo
info
ISSN: 0031-2290
Ano de publicación: 2025
Volume: 78
Número: 1
Páxinas: 97-110
Tipo: Artigo
Outras publicacións en: Parliamentary affairs: A journal of representative politics
Resumo
How does rural decline affect electoral politics? A well-known argument is that the growing geographical polarisation of populations between prospering major cities and declining hinterlands is emerging as a cleavage of electoral politics in developed countries. But prior work has focussed on specific outcomes of rural decline rather than examining whether the geographical distribution of political attitudes and behaviours within countries has become more uneven in the last decades. Using a measure of party nationalisation capturing spatial differences in electoral support across districts in OECD countries over the last 60 years, we find that a declining rural population increases differences in the geographical distribution of partisan support within countries. Nationalisation determines a party’s orientation toward distribution of public resources and support for region-specific interests.
Información de financiamento
Financiadores
- ICREA
-
Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation
- PID2022-136276NB-C21
- PID2022-136276NB-C22
Referencias bibliográficas
- Alesina, A., Devlesschauwer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S. and Wacziarg, R. (2003) ‘Fractionalisation’, Journal of Economic Growth, 8, 155–194
- Armstrong, D. A., II, Lucas, J. and Taylor, Z. (2022) ‘Te Urban-rural Divide in Canadian Federal Elections, 1896–2019’, Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique, 55, 84–106
- Beck, N. and Katz, J. N. (2011) ‘Modelling Dynamics in Time-series-cross-section Political Economy Data’, Annual Review of Political Science, 14, 331–352
- Bélanger, E. (2017) ‘Political Trust and Voting Behaviour’, Handbook on Political Trust. Edward Elgar Publishing
- Bochsler, D. (2010) ‘Measuring Party Nationalisation: A New Gini-based Indicator that Corrects for the Number of Units’, Electoral Studies, 29, 155–168
- Bormann, N. C. and Golder, M. (2013) ‘Democratic Electoral Systems Around the World, 1946-2011’, Electoral Studies, 32, 360–369
- Brookes, K. and Cappellina, B. (2023) ‘Political Behaviour in France: Te Impact of the Rural–Urban Divide’, French Politics, 21, 104–124
- De Lange, S., Wouter van der Brug, S. and Harteveld, E. (2022) ‘Regional Resentment in the Netherlands: A Rural or Peripheral Phenomenon?’, Regional Studies, 57, 1–13
- Ezrow, L. and Xezonakis, G. (2016) ‘Satisfaction with Democracy and Voter Turnout: A Temporal Perspective’, Party Politics, 22, 3–14
- Ford, R. and Jennings, W. (2020) ‘Te Changing Cleavage Politics of Western Europe’, Annual Review of Political Science, 23, 295–314
- Gimpel, J. G., Lovin, N., Moy, B. and Reeves, A. (2020) ‘Te Urban–rural Gulf in American Political Behavior’, Political Behavior, 42, 1343–1368
- Harteveld, E., Van der Brug, W., De Lange, S. and Van der Meer, T. (2022) ‘Multiple Roots of the Populist Radical Right: Support for the Dutch PVV in Cities and the Countryside’, European Journal of Political Research, 61, 440–461
- Hicken, A., Kollman, K. and Simmons, J. W. (2016) ‘Party System Nationalization and the Provision of Public Health Services’, Political Science Research and Methods, 4, 573–594
- Jacobs, N. and Munis, B. K. (2023) ‘Place-based Resentment in Contemporary US Elections: Te Individual sources of America’s Urban–Rural Divide’, Political Research Quarterly, 76, 1102–1118
- Jennings, W. and Stoker, G. (2016) ‘Te Bifurcation of Politics: Two Englands’, Te Political Quarterly, 87, 372–382
- Kollman, K., Hicken, A., Caramani, D., Backer, D. and Lublin, D. (2019) Constituency-Level Elections Archive, Ann Arbor, MI, Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan, http://www.electiondataarchive.org
- Laakso, M. and Taagepera, R. (1979) ‘Efective Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to West Europe’, Comparative Political Studies, 12, 3–27
- Lago, I. and Lago-Peñas, S. (2016) ‘An Economic Explanation of the Nationalization of Electoral Politics’, Electoral Studies, 44, 409–418
- Li, Y., Westlund, H. and Liu, Y. (2019) ‘Why Some Rural Areas Decline While Some Other Not: An Overview of Rural Evolution in the World’, Journal of Rural Studies, 68, 135–143
- Marcinkiewicz, K. (2018) ‘Te Economy or an Urban–Rural Divide? Explaining Spatial Patterns of Voting Behaviour in Poland’, East European Politics and Societies, 32, 693–719
- Margalit, Y. (2019) ‘Economic Insecurity and the Causes of Populism, Reconsidered’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33, 152–170
- Maxwell, R. (2020) ‘Geographic Divides and Cosmopolitanism: Evidence from Switzerland’, Comparative Political Studies, 53, 2061–2090
- McDonnell, D. and Stanford, B. (2024) ‘Te Party on Remote Ground: Disengaging and Disappearing?’, Parliamentary Afairs, 77, 46–61
- Mettler, S. and Brown, T. (2022) ‘Te Growing Rural-Urban Political Divide and Democratic Vulnerability’, Te ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 699, 130–142
- Moenius, J. and Kasuya, Y. (2004) ‘Measuring Party Linkage across Districts: Some Party System Infation Indices and Teir Properties’, Party Politics, 10, 543–564
- Morgenstern, S. (2017) Are Politics Local? Te Two Dimensions of Party Nationalization around the World, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press
- Rickardsson, J. (2021) ‘Te Urban–Rural Divide in Radical Right Populist Support: the Role of Resident’s Characteristics, Urbanization Trends and Public Service Supply’, Te Annals of Regional Science, 67, 211–242
- Rodden, J. A. (2019) Why Cities Lose: Te Deep Roots of the Urban-rural Political Divide, New York, Basic Books
- Rodríguez-Pose, A. (2018) ‘Te Revenge of the Places Tat Don’t Matter (and What to Do About It)’, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 11, 189–209
- Rodríguez-Pose, A. (2020) ‘Te Rise of Populism and the Revenge of the Places that Don’t Matter’, LSE Public Policy Review, 1, 1–9
- Rooduijn, M., Van Der Brug, W. and De Lange, S. L. (2016) ‘Expressing or Fuelling Discontent? Te Relationship Between Populist Voting and Political Discontent’, Electoral Studies, 43, 32–40
- Shair-Rosenfeld, S., Schakel, A. H., Niedzwiecki, S., Marks, G., Hooghe, L. and ChapmanOsterkatz, S. (2021) ‘Language Diference and Regional Authority’, Regional and Federal Studies, 31, 73–97
- Taylor, Z., Lucas, J., Armstrong II, D. A. and Bakker, R. (2023) ‘Te Development of the Urban-Rural Cleavage in Anglo-American Democracies’, Comparative Political Studies, 00104140231194060
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Afairs, Population Division (2019) World Urbanization Prospects: Te 2018 Revision (ST/ESA/SER.A/420), New York, NY, United Nations
- World Bank, World Development Indicators (2020a) ‘Rural Population (% of Total Population)’ [Data fle], accessed at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR. TOTL.ZS on 24 October 2022
- World Bank, World Development Indicators (2020b) ‘GDP Growth (Annual %)’ [Data fle], accessed at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG on 24 October 2022
- World Bank, World Development Indicators (2020c) ‘Land Area (sq. km)’ [Data fle], accessed at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.TOTL.K2 on 24 October 2022